<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[2nd Order Thinkers]]></title><description><![CDATA[AI cooperation strategy from an analyst who built software for 10 years and worked in labs for 8. ]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WNYq!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35dd0e18-6626-4837-943f-5fdcf56e8741_300x300.png</url><title>2nd Order Thinkers</title><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Sat, 31 Oct 2026 09:22:20 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[jing@ardonio.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[jing@ardonio.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[jing@ardonio.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[jing@ardonio.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Briefing: every company now wants to be your personal assistant]]></title><description><![CDATA[Anthropic and even DoorDash chip in! Elsewhere this week, AI exposed PHP issues, causing hacking activity to spike.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-70-of-the-websites-now-have</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-70-of-the-websites-now-have</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 23 Oct 2026 17:52:43 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WNYq!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35dd0e18-6626-4837-943f-5fdcf56e8741_300x300.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You may never have heard of PHP, but you&#8217;ve certainly used websites built with it, because it powers <a href="https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php">seven in ten websites</a> in the world. </p><h2>AI managed to screw up PHP? </h2><p>What happened was that the Researchers at OpenAI uncovered <a href="https://openai.com/index/coordinated-disclosure-of-critical-vulnerabilities/">two critical</a> security flaws in PHP. </p><p>And you think, Hurray! Because finding them was supposed to be the first step in better defendi&#8230;</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[What is the Muse charm? Three questions to ask about Muse]]></title><description><![CDATA[Your answers will show whether you understand the AI business or just a user..]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/three-questions-you-should-ask-about</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/three-questions-you-should-ask-about</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2026 14:33:31 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5d7t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1b8f59d4-a448-43e4-b5f8-8d8992e33b89_1643x957.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Meta&#8217;s AI assistant Muse has taken off, and I think it raised three important questions. </p><p>The first one that caught my attention was how two companies reacted completely differently to the same agent. <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/21/amazon-meta-muse-ai-agentic-shopping">Amazon blocked Muse</a> from shopping on its site. <a href="https://help.shopify.com/en/manual/online-sales-channels/agentic-storefronts/meta">Shopify</a>, meanwhile, rushed to make sure the merchant's product is recommended by Muse, with direct checkout &#8230;</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Briefing: Have you found your Muse yet? ]]></title><description><![CDATA[Other news, Astra chooses to push someone off a roof and Trump would like everyone to stop saying &#8220;artificial.&#8221;]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-have-you-found-your-muse</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-have-you-found-your-muse</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 02 Oct 2026 20:13:18 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!x3qK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6d9d4946-1702-4130-a4ec-f7a1dfc24fe0_1643x957.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey, </p><p>This week, have you Muse yet? </p><p>We&#8217;ll start by talking about Muse, the latest AI chatbot from Meta that's on everyone&#8217;s tongue: how much it earns, the user count, exactly what makes it different from OpenClaw (if you still remember it), and Zuckerberg's hopes for it going forward. </p><p>Elsewhere, an OpenAI agent <em>hacked</em> Australia&#8217;s Medicare statistics port&#8230;</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Briefing: The AI Speed Bump]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Fed raises rates, Nvidia meets antitrust, and Anthropic shows how hackers weaponized Claude.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-the-ai-speed-bump</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-the-ai-speed-bump</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2026 17:22:49 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/216197379/2b018eb17c41a564fae2f5019bdd848c.mp3" length="0" type="audio/mpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey, my friend,</p><p>How was your week?</p><p>This week, everyone in AI suddenly wants us to know they care. Amodei is asking the industry to slow down, and Altman and Musk followed. And the Fed, apparently, is happy to help.</p><p>We&#8217;ll also look at how Claude helped hackers target hotel guests, why Nvidia&#8217;s deals are attracting government attention, and Microsoft&#8217;s plan to potentially triple data-center capacity.</p><p>Last but not least, the SaaS question: How companies like Salesforce and Figma take entirely different strategies in AI integration. And another SaaS firm, Miro, may show us which SaaS companies AI will actually hurt.</p><p>Shall we?</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Finally found a newsletter with substance? Subscribe! </p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p></p><div><hr></div><h2>Taking turns to care</h2><p>It&#8217;s like Amodei and <a href="https://openai.com/index/governance-of-superintelligence/">Altman</a> made a pact: they&#8217;re taking turns releasing statements about slowing down AI development, just so people know they care.</p><p>Just last week, Dario Amodei <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/12/anthropic-ai-amodei-pacing">called for an immediate slowdown</a>, </p><div class="twitter-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://x.com/DarioAmodei/status/2098773920774074715&quot;,&quot;full_text&quot;:&quot;We Must Pace the Frontier: I&#8217;ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.\n\nAnthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We&#8217;ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our&#8230;&quot;,&quot;username&quot;:&quot;DarioAmodei&quot;,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Dario Amodei&quot;,&quot;profile_image_url&quot;:&quot;https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/2015835742577012736/uOwdzrEz_normal.jpg&quot;,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-09-12T14:01:10.000Z&quot;,&quot;photos&quot;:[],&quot;quoted_tweet&quot;:{},&quot;reply_count&quot;:10550,&quot;retweet_count&quot;:16319,&quot;like_count&quot;:87505,&quot;impression_count&quot;:75279620,&quot;expanded_url&quot;:null,&quot;video_url&quot;:null,&quot;video_preview_media_key&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM"></div><p>warning that within six to twelve months, swarms of AI agents could become capable of taking over the internet.</p><p>Within a few hours, the rest of the big names, like Elon Musk and Demis Hassabis, had all agreed that AI development should be paced.</p><p>At first, this looks like tech leaders finally growing a conscience.</p><p>But look carefully at the word they keep using: <strong>pace</strong>.</p><p>A term that means nothing if you think carefully. Who set the pace? At what pace? </p><p>OpenAI has also publicly blogged that the team has <a href="https://openai.com/index/pacing-model-development-cyber-capabilities/">slowed some of its model development</a>. It paused reinforcement-learning training for two weeks, and its largest planned frontier run remains on hold. </p><p>However, we all know that no company/ country can afford to slow down first or alone.</p><p>The first lab that seriously steps back risks losing researchers, customers, and investors, while others keep going. </p><p>Of course, the CEOs have thought about this too. They can slow down safely only if everyone else is forced to slow down with them.</p><p>I 100% agree with the call to slow down. All the content I wrote between 2024 and 25&#8217; has given me first-hand insight into the impact LLMs are already having on individuals and workplaces.</p><p>That said, it is hard not to be a little cynical. I don&#8217;t believe in pure altruism, especially from a group of people who continue to benefit from staying ahead.</p><p>The timing is also interesting. Anthropic is <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/09/14/anthropic-ipo-safety-openai">still expected to go public this year</a>, while OpenAI is leaning towards a 2027 listing.</p><p>Slower development could reduce Anthropic&#8217;s compute spending and improve its financials before the IPO. And if new models are becoming more expensive while producing smaller improvements, could it be that Amodei is less confident in the next generation? Or perhaps that Altman realized LLM scaling has a ceiling?</p><div><hr></div><h2>The Fed volunteers</h2><p>Hey, but don&#8217;t you worry, Dario Amodei, the help is on the way! </p><p>How thoughtful of the Federal Reserve to respond to your call so quickly&#8212;by making the entire AI boom more expensive.</p><p>Last week, the Fed <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm">raised interest rates by 0.25</a>, bringing its target range to up to 4%. It was the first rate increase since 2023, and another may follow. Most of you will soon experience this as more expensive mortgages or car loans.</p><p>But this is equally painful for the AI industry. </p><p>The current AI boom is running on <a href="https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/hyperscaler-debt-binge-pushes-yields-up-as-investor-demand-cools-4820617">debt</a>. For example, Amazon raised <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/amazon-aims-raise-25-billion-bond-sale-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-07-07/">$37 billion</a> from a bond sale in March, then returned in July for another<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/amazon-com-inc-amzn-aims-214415267.html"> $25</a> billion. </p><p>And Amazon is hardly alone. If combined with a few other tech giants, we&#8217;re looking at <span>nearly&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/hyperscaler-debt-binge-pushes-yields-up-as-investor-demand-cools-4820617"><span>$200 billion in debt raised through&nbsp;bonds</span></a><span>.</span> And if we further zoom out and widen the count to chipmakers and other companies financing the AI buildout, and AI-related bonds and loans had reached <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/07/27/debt-data-center-oracle-goole">$489 billion</a> before the summer was over.</p><p>Just to put it in context, this is roughly <strong>twenty years</strong> of <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/fy-2026-budget-request/">NASA&#8217;s entire annual budget</a>, borrowed in less than a year.</p><p><span>Let&#8217;s say the borrowing costs rise by the full 0.25 percentage points, and Amazon decides to borrow another&nbsp;</span><strong><span>$10 billion, $10 billion &#215; 0.25% = $25 million more in interest each year.</span></strong></p><p>So you see, even for tech giants, it adds up.</p><p>That makes the Fed the perfect AI speed bump. </p><div class="captioned-button-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-the-ai-speed-bump?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;}" data-component-name="CaptionedButtonToDOM"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Sharing is caring! </p></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-the-ai-speed-bump?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-the-ai-speed-bump?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p></div><p></p><div><hr></div><h2>Do you use AI in your hotel room?</h2><p>Stop chatting with your chatbot, especially when you stay in a hotel.</p><p><a href="https://www.anthropic.com/threat-intelligence-report-september-2026">Anthropic</a> found a hacking operation that used Claude at every stage, turning guest Wi-Fi into a delivery system for malware.</p><p>The attacker <a href="https://www.anthropic.com/threat-intelligence-report-september-2026">compromised at least three companies that operated hotel Wi-Fi</a>, then changed the internet settings so that, unknowingly, guests were redirected through servers controlled by the hacker. </p><p>It didn&#8217;t just stop here. The hackers combined that information with guest details stolen to identify people worth targeting.</p><p>That said, the hackers wouldn&#8217;t have been as good at their evil mission w/o Claude&#8217;s help.</p><p>AI played a big part in nearly every step along the way. For example, it helped with researching targets, stealing credentials, or when security software detected the malware, Claude helped modify and redeploy it.</p><p>And this AI-assisted cybersecurity loophole goes beyond public Wi-Fi. </p><p>While Anthropic is busy <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/feb/23/us-ai-anthropic-china">accusing Deepseek</a> and other Chinese firms of stealing data from a chat, Anthropic itself retains data sent to Claude Fable for <a href="https://www.anthropic.com/claude/fable">30 days by default</a>. even for some companies that otherwise have zero-data-retention agreements.</p><p>If this isn&#8217;t a thief crying stop thief, then I&#8217;m not sure what is. </p><div><hr></div><h2>Nvidia x Groq is in the spotlight</h2><p>The government is already <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/us-doj-probes-nvidias-licensing-deal-with-ai-startup-groq-nyt-reports-2026-09-10/">looking into Nvidia&#8217;s deal with Groq</a> for antitrust. So what&#8217;s the chance it approves Nvidia&#8217;s acquisition of Hugging Face?</p><p>At first, the answer seems obvious: the chances are low.</p><p>But if you look carefully, these are actually two types of deals.</p><p>Nvidia found a perfectly sneaky way to<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nvidia-20-billion-groq-bet-230301593.html"> pay roughly $20 billion to license Groq&#8217;s chip</a> and hire its top executives. All these without actually buying the company. This let Nvidia avoid the <a href="https://www.ftc.gov/advice-guidance/competition-guidance/guide-antitrust-laws/mergers/premerger-notification-merger-review-process">automatic government review</a> that a $20 billion acquisition would trigger.</p><p>The Justice Department is now <a href="https://www.techtarget.com/it-infrastructure/news/366650378/DOJ-reportedly-probes-Nvidia-Groq-deal-for-antitrust-concerns">investigating whether Nvidia deliberately structured it that way to escape antitrust scrutiny</a>.</p><p>With the Hugging Face deal, however, Huang decided to ask for permission. Nvidia has agreed to pay <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000078/nvda-20260902.htm">$12.9 billion for the entire company</a>, and the acquisition cannot close until regulators approve it.</p><p>So perhaps this is why, on the SEC filing, Nvidia promised that Hugging Face remains the open hub?  To lower regulators&#8217; guard?</p><div><hr></div><h2>Microsoft needs a grid</h2><p><a href="https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/microsoft-plans-38-gigawatts-of-data-center-capacity-by-2032-bloomberg-news-reports-4897030">Microsoft wants to triple its data-center capacity to 38 GW by 2032</a>. To put it in context, that&#8217;s more than New York State&#8217;s electricity use during peak periods. </p><p>The plan makes sense if Microsoft is right about the AI demand. </p><p>And Microsoft has a better reason than most companies to believe that demand will show up. As I said in the <a href="https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/microsoft-the-ai-dark-horse">deep dive</a>, it already owns the enterprise distribution machine: Office, Azure, Teams, and now Copilot. It doesn&#8217;t need every user to become a heavy AI user, but just for its clients to add another paid seat to the software they already buy.</p><p>But this is also where the risk sits. Microsoft is committing to infrastructure that can last decades while AI products change every few months.</p><p>So what happens if Microsoft&#8217;s largest customers decide it makes more financial sense to run their models in-house? Would Microsoft end up losing the revenue that pays for this giant build-out?</p><div><hr></div><h2>Two SaaS Futures</h2><p>Salesforce is building for a future where you never open Salesforce. Figma is betting you&#8217;ll still need to open Figma.</p><p><span data-color="rgb(67, 71, 80)" style="color: rgb(67, 71, 80);">Salesforce and Anthropic&#8217;s new partnership,&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.salesforce.com/news/press-releases/2026/08/26/salesforce-and-anthropic-announce-claudeforce/">ClaudeForce</a><span data-color="rgb(67, 71, 80)" style="color: rgb(67, 71, 80);">&nbsp;(come on, is this really the best you can do for a name?), brings Salesforce directly into Claude.</span> Workers can ask Claude to manage the frequent tasks they typically handle in Salesforce.</p><p>Though Salesforce also has Claude inside its own products, it&#8217;s perfectly fine letting Claude become the front door.</p><p>Which doesn&#8217;t surprise me.</p><p>As I argued when asking <a href="https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-why-isnt-saas-dead-already">why SaaS isn&#8217;t dead already</a>, Salesforce&#8217;s real value is the customer records, permissions, and business rules underneath. Claude owns the conversation, but Salesforce still controls which information it can access and what actions it can take.</p><p>In plain English, Salesforce can afford to do this because it&#8217;s never about the tabs and dashboards.</p><p>Even more so if you take the economics into account for a moment, if Salesforce disappears behind Claude, it may become even more valuable. For some obvious reasons, they can finally get rid of the majority of their designers and FE engineers, while every useful answer still depends on Salesforce&#8217;s data and rules.</p><p>On the other hand, Figma is making the opposite bet.</p><p><a href="https://s206.q4cdn.com/973901332/files/doc_financials/2026/q1/242074090_1996479323_3727608_Transcript_EditedCopy_20260514230208.pdf">Dylan Field said</a> that even if AI commoditizes code (which is not entirely true), the layer above code should remain visual, not living in a text box. As a result, Figma still wants its canvas to remain the center of product development.</p><p>And this AI adoption strategy also makes sense.</p><p>As I wrote when OpenAI tried to put every app inside ChatGPT, <a href="https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/openai-tries-what-google-and-meta">natural language is not automatically a better interface</a>.</p><p>&#8220;Show me which deals are slipping&#8221; types of works perfectly well inside a chatbot.</p><p>But &#8220;make me an app&#8221; types of vibe coding would only get you this far. The difficult part is deciding the flow and the design system, and whether that PayPal button doesn&#8217;t overlap with a credit card checkout button. </p><p>So while Salesforce is making the interface optional, Figma is defending the interface as its main selling point.</p><p>As long as Claude does not give users a comparable visual canvas, Figma is safe. </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">To support this newsletter, become a paid subscriber! </p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p></p><div><hr></div><h2>A SaaS company hit by AI</h2><p><a href="https://bendingspoons.com/">Bending Spoons</a> (which focuses on acquiring dying tech companies) is <a href="https://investors.bendingspoons.com/newsroom/bending-spoons-agrees-to-acquire-miro">buying Miro for $1.355 billion</a>, roughly one-tenth of <a href="https://miro.com/newsroom/miro-series-c/">Miro&#8217;s pandemic-era valuation.</a></p><p>Yes, I&#8217;ve been saying that SaaS companies won&#8217;t be killed by AI, but I also included a catch.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-why-isnt-saas-dead-already">the August issue about why SaaS isn&#8217;t dead</a>, I said the most vulnerable products would be those whose final output has little to do with the information already stored inside the platform.</p><p>Meet <a href="https://miro.com/">Miro</a>.</p><p>If you&#8217;ve never heard of it, don&#8217;t worry. Just think of it as a digital whiteboard.</p><p>Unlike Figma, Miro does not sit at the center of a product&#8217;s design system, reusable components, or developer handoff. People use Miro for things like simple flowcharts and brainstorming sessions. And you can easily recreate those in other tools.</p><p>Even without AI, Miro was already vulnerable. </p><p>The remote-work boom cooled, not to mention its competitors like Canva, Figma, and Microsoft, which offer similar features inside products that companies were already paying for.</p><p>AI is only the last straw on its gradual loss of product-market fit. </p><p>Now, users can even simply give an AI agent the meeting transcript and ask it to produce a customer journey or an action plan directly.</p><p>Unlike Figma, which has a perfect UX reason to keep the users, the AI agent will remove the reason to open Miro at all.</p><div><hr></div><p>What are your thoughts about the news and my analysis? Agreed or not, leave comments.  </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-the-ai-speed-bump/comments&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Leave a comment&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-the-ai-speed-bump/comments"><span>Leave a comment</span></a></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Briefing: OpenAI’s releases, Apple’s new products, and is SaaS dead yet?]]></title><description><![CDATA[How much do you know about the latest progress of the AI model race? Apparently, it has moved into chips, ads, and developer distribution.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-openais-releases-apples</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-openais-releases-apples</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 11 Sep 2026 21:25:54 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RBGM!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa0e7a0fa-9502-4ab8-8a12-868ddc980133_1672x941.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey, my friend, </p><p>How were the last two weeks for you? </p><p>I just arrived in Texas, and spent some time making sure I don&#8217;t write in a tent but in a flat with an air con (very important for Texas, of course, but maybe equally important to those of you in the UK these days). </p><p>There have been fewer AI headlines in the last couple of weeks. That said, the executi&#8230;</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Briefing: Why isn’t SaaS dead already if AI can replace software?]]></title><description><![CDATA[To those who predicted the end of SaaS]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-why-isnt-saas-dead-already</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-why-isnt-saas-dead-already</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 25 Aug 2026 13:54:36 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NLCd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F04cb4d5a-14ec-475c-bda0-7c9946ff33c4_1280x720.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>To those who predicted the end of SaaS</h2><p>Atlassian reported its first quarterly operating profit in more than two years, while Shopify reported 34% quarterly revenue growth. Monday.com grew revenue 22%. </p><p>&#8594; <a href="https://investors.atlassian.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx">Atlassian</a>, <a href="https://www.shopify.com/news/shopify-q2-2026-financial-results">Shopify</a>, <a href="https://ir.monday.com/news-and-events/news-releases/news-details/2026/monday-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx">Monday</a></p><p>Seriously, you can&#8217;t imagine how many people live in the AI bubble, and have the same view as Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 24-yea&#8230;</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Microsoft, the AI dark horse]]></title><description><![CDATA[Listen now | Having followed the latest earnings of the biggest cloud companies, let me explain why Microsoft suddenly gets so much attention from AI investors.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/microsoft-the-ai-dark-horse</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/microsoft-the-ai-dark-horse</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 13 Aug 2026 14:37:28 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WhJ4!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F98741274-8a8d-4f38-b47a-024b4532adbe_1644x957.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve followed the earnings calls of the <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/18819/worldwide-market-share-of-leading-cloud-infrastructure-service-providers/?srsltid=AfmBOoozLF8ORqqXsj8HsiuX1NtGN3v2TKm31CP_bmr3OZ5cxd-T4pZV">three biggest cloud providers</a> on the planet, Microsoft, Amazon, Google. </p><p>And I&#8217;m using Microsoft (Azure) as the main character to pull the thread to explain what&#8217;s going on in AI and cloud in 2026, and who&#8217;s winning, who&#8217;s losing. </p><p></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Briefing: how big tech sees the future of AI?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Q2 2026 software earnings season, a time for investors to either double down or pull back their money based on a CEO's AI strategy.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-how-big-tech-see-the-future</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-how-big-tech-see-the-future</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 06 Aug 2026 13:42:34 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!urpG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcd9d0651-746d-4aa9-9e2d-fbe9c3fefee4_1642x958.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey, </p><p>It&#8217;s the earnings season, the best time to understand how the giants view AI and how each chooses to bet on their version of the AI future, cause last time I checked, AI is here to stay. </p><p>And a personal note. </p><p>Klaas and I have been preparing to move to the US for the last three years; it&#8217;s finally happening! </p><p>We&#8217;ll be landing in Austin, TX, first thin&#8230;</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Google's Struggle]]></title><description><![CDATA[A decades-old cash machine is now betting that token activity turns into durable profit, but would it really work?]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/googles-200-billion-identity-crisis</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/googles-200-billion-identity-crisis</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2026 14:04:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozQQ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5bd43b8-4ef2-477f-93f5-413f602240ac_1642x958.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For twenty years, Google had the perfect business.</p><p>The beauty of its business model was that it <strong>did not have to spend</strong>. </p><p>One more search cost almost nothing. No extra factory and no new machine to replace every few years.</p><p>Then last quarter, Sundar Pichai, the man behind the machine, decided selling answers is no longer fun. </p><p>For the very first time since its founding, after <strong>87 consecutive quarters</strong> of cash generation, Alphabet has a negative cash flow. </p><p>Pichai placed a <strong>$200 billion bet</strong> on building the shovels for AI: chips, servers, and data centers. And says the spending will rise to an even more stunning level again next year.</p><p>Immediately, this triggered a sell-off. </p><p>But the deeper problem is not the stock price. It&#8217;s that Google may be <strong>changing the economics of its entire business</strong>. I&#8217;ll answer these questions in this one: </p><ul><li><p>How did Google redeem itself from being an AI underdog?</p></li><li><p>What is Google becoming?</p></li><li><p>How real is Gemini&#8217;s demand? </p></li><li><p>Is the overall AI demand even real?</p></li><li><p>What to watch next?</p></li></ul><p>Let&#8217;s start with a little bit of drama. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozQQ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5bd43b8-4ef2-477f-93f5-413f602240ac_1642x958.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset image2-full-screen"><picture><source type="image/webp" 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src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ozQQ!,w_5760,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe5bd43b8-4ef2-477f-93f5-413f602240ac_1642x958.png" 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class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon-noB79L"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2 icon-noB79L"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Briefing: The Fight Over Open AI]]></title><description><![CDATA[OpenAI and SpaceX signed the open-weight letter. Anthropic did not. Then an OpenAI model hacked Hugging Face during a security test, which only later on resolved by another open-weight...]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-the-fight-over-open-ai</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-the-fight-over-open-ai</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2026 12:42:01 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WNYq!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35dd0e18-6626-4837-943f-5fdcf56e8741_300x300.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>From 1 to 10, how much should you trust commercial models?</h2><p>An AI was so determined to pass a test that it escaped its sandbox and broke into another company to steal the answers.</p><p>Exactly what happened to <a href="https://huggingface.co/blog/security-incident-july-2026">Hugging Face</a> (a platform for sharing AI models). After an enormous forensic effort, they&#8217;ve found more than 17,000 attack events.</p><p>And the first reversal w&#8230;</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[China just broke the AI business with Kimi K3]]></title><description><![CDATA[Listen now | Why China is giving away what America&#8217;s most valuable AI companies are built to sell.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/china-just-broke-the-ai-business</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/china-just-broke-the-ai-business</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2026 08:34:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_rxR!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec0f6b7c-bfde-4f23-9bfe-07a08ed56fec_1644x957.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Two of the most ironic stories of 2026 happened back-to-back. </p><p>The first one begins with an AI attack.</p><p>An AI was so determined to pass a test that it escaped its sandbox and broke into another company to steal the answers.</p><p>Exactly what happened to <a href="https://huggingface.co/blog/security-incident-july-2026">Hugging Face</a> (a platform for sharing AI models). After an enormous forensic effort, they&#8217;ve found more than 17,000 attack events. </p><p>And the first reversal was already a surprise, because the attacker was not a mysterious criminal but <a href="https://openai.com/index/hugging-face-model-evaluation-security-incident/">OpenAI&#8217;s</a> most capable model that escaped its lab. </p><p>The second part of it was even stranger.</p><p>You&#8217;d start with American frontier models for investigating an advanced AI attack.</p><p>So, immediately, Hugging Face turned to powerful commercial models for help. Then came what no one saw coming: the <strong>AI refused to collaborate</strong>. Because its guardrails mistook the investigator from Hugging Face as the attacker.</p><p>Out of options, Hugging Face turned to <strong>Chinese open-weight</strong> GLM 5.2, only then <strong>successfully pieced together the hack and a defense</strong>. </p><p>The second story that happened in parallel truly set the tone for an ongoing ripple of panic among the AI industry. </p><p><strong><a href="https://x.com/Kimi_Moonshot/status/2077830229968683203">Kimi K3</a>&#8217;s release.</strong> </p><p>A Chinese open-weight model that is as capable as the best of the best. Yes, I meant Fable 5 and GPT 5.6 while costing only <a href="https://platform.kimi.ai/docs/pricing/chat-k3">half the price per million tokens</a>; many developers were blown away by its capabilities. </p><div class="twitter-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://x.com/Kimi_Moonshot/status/2077830229968683203&quot;,&quot;full_text&quot;:&quot;Introducing Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence\n\n&#128313; 2.8 Trillion Parameters, 1 Million Context, Native Multimodal\n&#128313; Kimi Delta Attention enables up to 6.3x faster decoding in million-token contexts\n&#128313; Attention Residuals deliver ~25% higher training efficiency at &amp;lt;2% additional &quot;,&quot;username&quot;:&quot;Kimi_Moonshot&quot;,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Kimi.ai&quot;,&quot;profile_image_url&quot;:&quot;https://pbs.substack.com/profile_images/1910294000927645696/QseOV0uF_normal.png&quot;,&quot;date&quot;:&quot;2026-07-16T18:58:25.000Z&quot;,&quot;photos&quot;:[{&quot;img_url&quot;:&quot;https://pbs.substack.com/media/HNXu0kobMAAPljb.png&quot;,&quot;link_url&quot;:&quot;https://t.co/eFHEbdxn3P&quot;},{&quot;img_url&quot;:&quot;https://pbs.substack.com/media/HNXu2GWaYAAwH4w.png&quot;,&quot;link_url&quot;:&quot;https://t.co/eFHEbdxn3P&quot;}],&quot;quoted_tweet&quot;:{},&quot;reply_count&quot;:1695,&quot;retweet_count&quot;:7635,&quot;like_count&quot;:57023,&quot;impression_count&quot;:23395325,&quot;expanded_url&quot;:null,&quot;video_url&quot;:null,&quot;video_preview_media_key&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true}" data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM"></div><p>The AI models of these two stories&#8212;GLM 5.2 and Kimi K3&#8212;have two things in common. First, both are open-weight, and second, both are by Chinese labs. </p><p>Put 2 and 2 together, I don&#8217;t blame many for wondering what the point is in prioritizing and even investing in American AI commercial models, while in the end, it&#8217;s the Chinese open-weight ones that save the world? </p><p>I spent days catching up with all these; let me break down the stories and the thinking with you; along the way, I&#8217;ll answer these questions: </p><ul><li><p>What&#8217;s so impressive about Kimi K3?</p></li><li><p>Is Kimi K3 just dirt cheap? Or is something else&#8217;s brewing?</p></li><li><p>Why is China willing to distribute advanced models so openly?</p></li><li><p>What about the US? Is the US government protecting the AI industry or just the likes of OpenAI?</p></li></ul><p>Let&#8217;s start with <em><strong>why people are so impressed by Kimi K3</strong></em>.</p><p></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[What Alex Karp really meant in that viral CNBC interview]]></title><description><![CDATA[I watched the Palantir CEO, Alex Karp&#8217;s viral CNBC interview so you don&#8217;t have to. Here&#8217;s what he was really trying to say.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/what-alex-karp-really-meant-in-that</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/what-alex-karp-really-meant-in-that</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2026 05:27:09 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/206825370/62e92fa7-1d40-4a0e-ae98-70e4751ef6dc/transcoded-1784558291.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For each AI query, you pay twice. And only the first round is paid in money (and it&#8217;s the cheaper one). </p><p>But this isn&#8217;t the worst of it; this one interview with Karp, Palantir&#8217;s CEO, went viral: </p><blockquote><p><em>I&#8217;m going to get no value, and they&#8217;re (the likes of Anthropic and OpenAI) going to get my IP.</em> (02:17-02:21)</p></blockquote><div id="youtube2-0A3sGymV6kY" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;0A3sGymV6kY&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:&quot;137&quot;,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/0A3sGymV6kY?start=137&amp;rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><p>About the same time, <a href="https://snscratchpad.com/posts/reverse-information-paradox/?utm_source=newsletter.strictlyvc.com&amp;utm_medium=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=svc-beehiiv&amp;_bhlid=51b8ca88332cbc73b068f7deb3006ba30cdd57e2">Nadella</a>, Microsoft&#8217;s CEO, published this (a calm version of essentially the same statement)</p><blockquote><p><em>The buyer is giving away knowledge, just in order to use what they bought.</em></p></blockquote><p>Basically, both CEOs are saying the same thing: The number on your invoice isn&#8217;t what you <em><strong>actually</strong></em> paid. You might even have already <em><strong>overpaid</strong></em> for what a model could realistically achieve, bringing your ROI into doubt. </p><p>With these CEOs starting to voice the &#8216;<em>truth</em>&#8217;<span>&nbsp;</span><em><span>(</span></em><span>certainly </span><em><span>not</span></em><span> because it&nbsp;aligns with their incentives</span>), I&#8217;ll answer these five questions: </p><ul><li><p><span data-color="rgb(67, 71, 80)" style="color: rgb(67, 71, 80);">What does AI&nbsp;</span><em>actually</em><span data-color="rgb(67, 71, 80)" style="color: rgb(67, 71, 80);">&nbsp;cost? Imagine there are no subsidies.</span>  </p></li><li><p>Apart from money, what else are you paying the labs (such as OpenAI and Anthropic) for?</p></li><li><p>How does AI rewrite&nbsp;<em>competition? </em>Do you stand a chance against your vendor-turned-competitor? </p></li><li><p>What do the hyperscalers' CEOs recommend the world do?</p></li><li><p>What does it all mean to the AI industry?</p></li></ul><p>To start with, the <em><strong>true token cost</strong></em>. </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Are you bored with headlines and hype w/o substacnce? Subscribe for more deep analysis like this one. </p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Briefing: Washington wants open-weight AI, just not China’s]]></title><description><![CDATA[Kimi K3 lands as Meta tests a cloud move, DeepSeek weighs a listing, and SK Hynix cashes in on the memory squeeze.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-washington-wants-open-weight</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-washington-wants-open-weight</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:20:29 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WNYq!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35dd0e18-6626-4837-943f-5fdcf56e8741_300x300.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Kimi K3, one that puts pressure on Fable 5 and GPT 5.6</h2><p>You likely have some vague impression of a company called Moonshot and their AI model. Don&#8217;t worry about it, because you&#8217;ll know of them soon enough. They&#8217;ve recently released Kimi K3, an open-weight model that topped multiple coding benchmarks and <em><strong>closed in on Anthropic&#8217;s and OpenAI&#8217;s flagship model&#8230;</strong></em></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Is Zuckerberg Finally Coming-of-Age?]]></title><description><![CDATA[From founder Zuckerberg to CEO Zuckerberg, Meta's AI story is shifting from open ecosystems to shareholders and returns.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/is-zuckerberg-finally-coming-of-age</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/is-zuckerberg-finally-coming-of-age</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2026 08:41:19 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fF51!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37b29bdb-99da-4bd2-82d5-9ab4797cd27c_1200x700.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For years, Zuckerberg&#8217;s superpower and weakness were the same thing: <em><strong>he could bet Meta on an idea no one else believed in</strong></em>. </p><p>But since 2025, something has changed.</p><p>The idealist who charmed developers and users is suddenly gone. <span data-color="rgb(67, 71, 80)" style="color: rgb(67, 71, 80);">In its place,&nbsp;</span><em><strong>a capitalist CEO prioritizes shareholders and fund managers. </strong></em></p><p>In this one, I&#8217;ll cover: </p><ul><li><p>Where did Llama go? Is this the beginning of the end for open-weight AI?</p></li><li><p>Is Meta really preparing to sell compute? How serious is Zuckerberg about this?</p></li><li><p>Is enterprise AI becoming the next Meta business?</p></li><li><p>What should we look for in the next earnings call?</p></li></ul><p>But let&#8217;s start with a little history, so you know why this is such a big deal. </p><p></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Briefing: Beijing's AI Policy and Saaspocalypse is Not Real.]]></title><description><![CDATA[Meta released its commercial model; the benchmark dilemma continues, and my prediction about the SpaceX-Cursor deal has come true.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-beijings-ai-policy-and-saaspocalypse</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/briefing-beijings-ai-policy-and-saaspocalypse</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 11 Jul 2026 05:18:12 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WNYq!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35dd0e18-6626-4837-943f-5fdcf56e8741_300x300.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h1><strong>Beijing&#8217;s AI export control</strong></h1><p>Chinese officials are apparently kicking around a new idea: limiting overseas access to China&#8217;s most advanced AI models.</p><p>&#8594; <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/beijing-is-looking-curbing-overseas-access-chinas-top-ai-models-sources-say-2026-07-07/?utm_campaign=article_email&amp;utm_content=article-17415&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=sg">Reuters</a></p><p>Trump is a pioneer of many things (I&#8217;m practicing positive thinking these days). The latest one, he initiated export controls on AI models, and others soon followed suit. </p><p>That&#8217;s the latest lesson Bei&#8230;</p>
      <p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Ban Anthropic is now a fashion]]></title><description><![CDATA[Anthropic may have developer love, but unfortunately, that matters less when governments, security teams, and platform owners make the final call.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/ban-anthropic-is-now-a-fashion</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/ban-anthropic-is-now-a-fashion</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2026 13:00:07 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SotD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8df3b030-5ade-46c9-b6ff-f3b4d59f81bb_1643x957.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Bending Spoons IPO = the end of Saas?</h2><p>Ever heard of Bending Spoons? It&#8217;s the Italian software group behind acquisitions such as Evernote, WeTransfer, Vimeo, Eventbrite, Brightcove, and AOL, which raised about $1.68 billion in its IPO after pricing above its range. The company doesn&#8217;t follow the typical PE playbook, but turns a sunsetting Saas into a dura&#8230;</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Micron, how it crashes the AI party]]></title><description><![CDATA[I've read the Micro's earnings report so you don't have to. In this, you'll learn why AI companies are suddenly fighting for memory.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/12-mins-why-memory-is-going-to-make</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/12-mins-why-memory-is-going-to-make</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2026 08:14:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S18K!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>Micron</h2><p>As of this writing, the stock has nearly <a href="https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/">tripled</a> since January.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S18K!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S18K!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S18K!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S18K!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S18K!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S18K!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png" width="1456" height="969" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:969,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:213264,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/i/204271533?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S18K!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S18K!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S18K!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S18K!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94aa0bb4-445f-425f-aa6a-c6e77253614b_1602x1066.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon-noB79L"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image buttonBase-GK1x3M"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2 icon-noB79L"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Everyone is talking about Micron: YouTube, news, your neighbor, colleague&#8230;  in particular, how you&#8217;ve missed out big time if you haven&#8217;t bought the stock! </p><p>But that&#8217;s not why I&#8217;m here and not why you&#8217;re here either. </p><p>I&#8217;ve read their and others' earnings calls in the last few days, and in this, I&#8217;m going to explain to you&#8230; </p><ul><li><p>Why does it suddenly get so much attention? </p></li><li><p>Why does the stock price boom? </p></li><li><p>The RAM shortage and why does AI make this worse?</p></li><li><p>How! How this memory party is <em><strong>not</strong></em> a good sign for companies adopting AI, and even worse news for AI labs? </p></li><li><p>And finally, what to look out for?</p></li></ul><p>Let&#8217;s start with who Micron is in 30 seconds</p><p></p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[explain the Anthropic export ban in 16 mins]]></title><description><![CDATA[The debate is whether Anthropic's model was actually dangerous enough to justify an export control. I get it, it's concrete, and it lets everyone pick a side. But I think it misses the point.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/the-ai-boom-depends-on-permission</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/the-ai-boom-depends-on-permission</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2026 09:42:12 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Sfhv!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7b8d565-dac7-4f23-bd55-3d311591fec8_1643x957.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It is tempting to make this an Anthropic story because Anthropic makes it very easy.</p><p>Yes, they asked for regulation, they built the safety brand, they brought trusted partners into the testing process, and then one of those partners reportedly helped trigger the government response. There is irony there, and honestly, it is hard to ignore. </p><p>But if we stop at the irony, we miss the critical lesson. </p><p><em><strong>This is not unique to Anthropic.</strong></em> </p><p>If frontier models become powerful enough, every major lab will eventually face the same kind of pressure. OpenAI, Google, xAI, whoever comes next. </p><p>Specifically, they all depend on timing: the model launches, customers show up, usage scales, and the revenue curve catches up to the cost curve before the gap becomes fatal. </p><p>Until now, no one saw an <em><strong>export ban</strong></em> coming into the equation. </p><p>So <em><strong>what happens when the AI economy discovers that its entire revenue estimation is off by an administrative order?</strong></em> </p><p>Following this question, a few more threads to pull: </p><ol><li><p>How much model risk have ordinary companies inherited without seeing it? </p></li><li><p>What happens to a frontier lab when revenue is delayed but compute costs keep running? </p></li><li><p>And how far does the damage travel once the financing behind the boom gets repriced?</p></li></ol><p>To see that, we have to start with what actually happened.</p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Sfhv!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7b8d565-dac7-4f23-bd55-3d311591fec8_1643x957.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset image2-full-screen"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Sfhv!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7b8d565-dac7-4f23-bd55-3d311591fec8_1643x957.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Sfhv!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7b8d565-dac7-4f23-bd55-3d311591fec8_1643x957.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Sfhv!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7b8d565-dac7-4f23-bd55-3d311591fec8_1643x957.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Sfhv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7b8d565-dac7-4f23-bd55-3d311591fec8_1643x957.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Sfhv!,w_5760,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff7b8d565-dac7-4f23-bd55-3d311591fec8_1643x957.png" 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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Real AI Bottleneck Isn’t the Model, But... ]]></title><description><![CDATA[From chips to robotics to household data collection, AI companies are finally learning that they can not escape the constraints of physics.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/ai-companies-are-betting-on-physics</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/ai-companies-are-betting-on-physics</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 29 Jun 2026 16:41:16 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WNYq!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F35dd0e18-6626-4837-943f-5fdcf56e8741_300x300.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>1. Coinbase hits the token hangover</h2><p>Coinbase CEO (Brian Armstrong) provided 5 approaches they used to cut AI spending nearly in half: make AI costs visible, route tasks to cheaper models, cache more, keep context lean, and <em><strong>use open-weight models </strong>where they are good enough</em>.</p><p>&#8594; <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coinbase-ceo-brian-armstrong-low-ai-spend-maintain-token-usage-2026-6">Business Insider</a></p><p>After months of tokenmaxxing, people are finally coming to their &#8230;</p>
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          <a href="https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/ai-companies-are-betting-on-physics">
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[understand the SpaceX and Cursor deal in 13 mins]]></title><description><![CDATA[Listen now | I read the SpaceX S-1 so you don't have to. The buried clauses explain everything about this deal and where enterprise AI coding is headed.]]></description><link>https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/why-cursor-matters-more-than-spacexs</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.2ndorderthinkers.com/p/why-cursor-matters-more-than-spacexs</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jing Hu]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 22 Jun 2026 05:16:57 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6b8c41e9-75b4-4f9a-ae9d-49c820723092_1642x958.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Musk had 30 days to decide whether to purchase Cursor. He used only a weekend. </p><p>Rewind. </p><p>If the only tech news that mattered last week was SpaceX&#8217;s largest public offering in history, then the one piece of tech news to know this week is SpaceX&#8217;s acquisition of Cursor.</p><p>This is pretty much a done deal, something they were already planning since April. Yes, so what&#8217;s left to talk about? </p><p>A lot. </p><p>To start with, this is the one thing that will impact the landscape of the enterprise coding platforms over the next 3 years. </p><p>So, I&#8217;ll answer the following questions in this one: </p><ol><li><p>Why even buy Cursor to start with? </p></li><li><p>Why was Musk in such a rush to make this decision?</p></li><li><p>What Musk actually bought?</p></li><li><p>How would this impact Anthropic? (yes, Anthropic) </p></li><li><p>Two possible war-room scenarios for all parties over the next three years</p></li></ol><p>Shall we? </p><p></p>
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