2026-03-12 The Layoff Blame Game and China Goes Crazy About AI
1. The AI Layoff Scorecard That Nobody Agrees On
Brookings published a research review this week concluding that the evidence on AI’s impact on the labor market is “collectively inconclusive.” A Gartner survey of 321 customer service executives found only 20% actually downsized due to AI — most layoffs came from broader economic conditions. Forrester went further: 55% of employers who made AI-attributed cuts already regret it. Gartner now predicts that half of the companies that made AI-linked cuts will be rehiring for similar roles by 2027.
→ Gartner
Editor’s take: AI isn’t going to take your job.
The thesis this week is written specifically for you — with the one chart you need to keep in mind for the next five years, and how to use it to your advantage.
Keep an eye on your inbox!
(also, like and comment, so I’m motivated to give you more updates 😊)
And then here comes the news that tells an entirely opposite story…
2. Sure, Blame AI for the 92,000 Job Losses in February
The U.S. economy shed 92,000 jobs in February, well below forecasts. Forecasters expected a gain of around 50,000–60,000 jobs. News outlets blame AI.
→ Fortune
Editor’s take: Not everything in this jobs report is about AI. Companies over-hired, interest rates rose, and now they’re correcting — AI is a convenient label for a very ordinary business cycle.
3. China Is Queuing Around the Block to Install an AI Agent. Literally.
Nearly 1,000 people — retirees, students, homemakers — lined up outside Tencent’s Shenzhen headquarters last week for free OpenClaw installations. Local governments in Shenzhen and Wuxi are offering up to $1.4 million in subsidies for startups building on it. People are paying freelancers just to set up their local machines. China’s usage of OpenClaw has already overtaken the U.S.
→ CNBC
Editor’s take: Nationwide crazy. This screenshot is from Chinese eBay. I found dozens (if not hundreds) of vendors offering to set up OpenClaw locally.
4. AI Shopping Can’t Close the Deal
Shopify’s CFO told investors this week that despite surging AI-powered product discovery, actual transactions completed by AI agents remain minimal. “You’re just not seeing a ton of that,” he said. Traffic is up. Wallets stay closed.
Editor’s take: I wrote about why this was coming. The desire to shop isn’t the same as the desire to buy.
Don’t forget to keep an eye on our weekend thesis!
Jing
At this point these big companies pretty much have to claim that it's AI removing the need for jobs. Not only have the committed a large of amount of resources (that could be used for other R&D) but they also over-hired in the COVID era (poor management). They aren't going to say "hey, we're out of ideas" or "hey, we really were poor at managing our business".