Are Junior-Level Jobs Really Killed by AI?

A Harvard team claims AI killed junior jobs.

They tracked 62 million workers and found that companies posting “AI integrator” jobs saw junior headcount drop 9% within six quarters.

But they missed something fundamental…

The junior hiring crash started in 2022, before many people knew what “prompt engineering” was. A few months after the Fed jacked rates from 0% to 5.25%.

I’ll show you why this matters: We’ve blamed the wrong culprit for entry-level job losses three times in 25 years. Each time, a generation’s careers were permanently scarred. And we’re about to do it again.

TL;DR

1. Did AI cause the junior hiring crash?

   No. AI didn’t trigger the collapse. The hiring drop started before AI entered the workflow; AI added some pressure only from late 2024 onward. Macro factors—rate hikes, post-COVID correction—were the main drivers.​

2. If not AI, what did wipe out junior roles?

   It was a messy cocktail: high interest rates, economic uncertainty, and firms over-hiring, then slamming the brakes. The study ignores how big shifts in inflation and recession fears shaped these cuts, despite trying to account for rate changes.​

3. Why do tech companies' C-suites say “it’s AI” when it isn’t?

   Because blaming AI is easier PR than saying “our board forced us to cut.” Most CEOs don’t know what AI can actually do—job cuts are about cost, not capability.​

4. Is this a temporary dip or a permanent shift?

   If companies just use AI as a crutch to stay lean, this could become the new normal for entry-level jobs. Unless something changes, fewer juniors now means fewer seniors later, period.​

5. Is it just tech and US firms, or everyone?

   No, this is broader. The drop hit multiple sectors—everything from finance to marketing. Wherever early-career tasks are routine and budget-sensitive, juniors felt the axe.

AI is a convenient excuse now. But it’s not the reason. By the way, you want to save this one first, I promise it’s worth your time.

Shall we?