I puzzle through a hard problem because thinking leads to understanding and wisdom, and my answer is superior to AI’s to boot.
I’m extremely bearish on humanity’s future re both AI and online life in general. We are absolutely going to become increasingly dumber, lazier and less happy. Mis- & disinformation, deepfakes off the charts, most content AI-slop. We’ve lost the war and only a truly vast societal shift can resist it.
In the meantime, temperatures will keep rising until civilization collapses.
If we rate from 1 to 10 how technology will impact our civilization, both positively and negatively, social media would be around 4, while AI could be a 7 or 8.
It's hard to say whether it will cause the collapse of our civilization, but what is certain?
It will transform it in such a way that people from the last generation wouldn't recognize it if they were sent 50 years into the future.
I generally try to stay neutral and not be overly negative about these things because, despite all the potential negative impacts we've seen, many people are also using tech and AI to do good.
I’m not saying AI will cause the collapse of civilisation. I doubt it will. It’s an absolutely huge deal, and will fundamentally change society even more than social media has, agreed.
I reckon we need a lot less than 50 years before things look unrecognisable, though I am extremely sceptic of AGI even being a possibility.
No, collapse will happen for a number of other reasons (my blog is about it). It’s besides the point of your post, but kind of hard to ignore since it envelopes everything else happening in the world, AI included.
I agree wholeheartedly that AI is going to created an even bigger SES divide which is unfortunate. Because it has the potential to go the other way if we as a society truly valued it.
There's the potential to get things right. The difficulty is to get the smart people to work together and counter the downside.
I forgot where I read this, one of the philosophers, the most unfortunate fact is that smart people rarely agree on one idea and can execute wholeheartedly towards the same direction... because everyone has their own thoughts, which makes the progress nearly impossible.
Trust me I know. I worked in higher ed for nearly 20 years. Everyone thinks they are right and they know how to do it better. And yes, getting a bunch of academics or smart folks to agree - not an easy task!
An interesting series based on a provocative source. I sort of agree with your AI hierarchy but I don’t think that wealth will be the determinant. I think your billionaire’s model is a bit cherry picked but mostly old. Jobs is long dead and Thiel is the definition of oddball outlier. Andressen ismore typical of the silicon valley heart. Many of these people now are constantly using AI. I also think they may limit the social platform usage but will encourage their children to use AI early as there is a strong belief in the educational importance of AI, especially in that milieu. I think real and perceived agency may be the defining factors for your hierarchy
Interesting thoughts for the soon to be less thinking
I didn't mean that there'd be no rich trying to use AI. But very soon, they will come to the same conclusion as what we've been discussing over the last year ...
that AI has little benefit to their lives and work.
The example you mention might be one of those who are interested in testing the limitations of this tool; however, the long-term, overall picture is still debatable. I still believe that people who have resources would rather rely on humans than AI.
We will see whose beliefs come to pass. You used the billionnaire class which I was commenting on. Happy to give many more examples The tech bros billionaire class aren’t currently showing a human over AI bias. Quite the opposite
I love the wide range of questions about effects on our curiosity and attention span, with space for boredom and noticing the natural world and our own emotions. The suggestions at the end are thoughtful. Thanks for the multi-part dive into impact.
Glad you enjoyed the work! I'd love to brainstorm ways in which knowledge like this can help more people in tech disadvantage. Really appreciate your support Hans.
I puzzle through a hard problem because thinking leads to understanding and wisdom, and my answer is superior to AI’s to boot.
I’m extremely bearish on humanity’s future re both AI and online life in general. We are absolutely going to become increasingly dumber, lazier and less happy. Mis- & disinformation, deepfakes off the charts, most content AI-slop. We’ve lost the war and only a truly vast societal shift can resist it.
In the meantime, temperatures will keep rising until civilization collapses.
If we rate from 1 to 10 how technology will impact our civilization, both positively and negatively, social media would be around 4, while AI could be a 7 or 8.
It's hard to say whether it will cause the collapse of our civilization, but what is certain?
It will transform it in such a way that people from the last generation wouldn't recognize it if they were sent 50 years into the future.
I generally try to stay neutral and not be overly negative about these things because, despite all the potential negative impacts we've seen, many people are also using tech and AI to do good.
Thanks a lot for sharing your thoughts.
I’m not saying AI will cause the collapse of civilisation. I doubt it will. It’s an absolutely huge deal, and will fundamentally change society even more than social media has, agreed.
I reckon we need a lot less than 50 years before things look unrecognisable, though I am extremely sceptic of AGI even being a possibility.
No, collapse will happen for a number of other reasons (my blog is about it). It’s besides the point of your post, but kind of hard to ignore since it envelopes everything else happening in the world, AI included.
I agree wholeheartedly that AI is going to created an even bigger SES divide which is unfortunate. Because it has the potential to go the other way if we as a society truly valued it.
There's the potential to get things right. The difficulty is to get the smart people to work together and counter the downside.
I forgot where I read this, one of the philosophers, the most unfortunate fact is that smart people rarely agree on one idea and can execute wholeheartedly towards the same direction... because everyone has their own thoughts, which makes the progress nearly impossible.
Trust me I know. I worked in higher ed for nearly 20 years. Everyone thinks they are right and they know how to do it better. And yes, getting a bunch of academics or smart folks to agree - not an easy task!
An interesting series based on a provocative source. I sort of agree with your AI hierarchy but I don’t think that wealth will be the determinant. I think your billionaire’s model is a bit cherry picked but mostly old. Jobs is long dead and Thiel is the definition of oddball outlier. Andressen ismore typical of the silicon valley heart. Many of these people now are constantly using AI. I also think they may limit the social platform usage but will encourage their children to use AI early as there is a strong belief in the educational importance of AI, especially in that milieu. I think real and perceived agency may be the defining factors for your hierarchy
Interesting thoughts for the soon to be less thinking
That said ... I'm not them so 🤷 it'd be interesting if I can survey them :D
Glad you found this theory interesting!
I didn't mean that there'd be no rich trying to use AI. But very soon, they will come to the same conclusion as what we've been discussing over the last year ...
that AI has little benefit to their lives and work.
The example you mention might be one of those who are interested in testing the limitations of this tool; however, the long-term, overall picture is still debatable. I still believe that people who have resources would rather rely on humans than AI.
We will see whose beliefs come to pass. You used the billionnaire class which I was commenting on. Happy to give many more examples The tech bros billionaire class aren’t currently showing a human over AI bias. Quite the opposite
I love the wide range of questions about effects on our curiosity and attention span, with space for boredom and noticing the natural world and our own emotions. The suggestions at the end are thoughtful. Thanks for the multi-part dive into impact.
Glad you enjoyed the work! I'd love to brainstorm ways in which knowledge like this can help more people in tech disadvantage. Really appreciate your support Hans.